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I think what you're saying is 100% true.

BUT

It's also true that no one knows what they're doing. Because every situation is specific and has it's own nuances.

We all need to "fuck around and find out." That's the message that I get from "no one knows what they’re doing.”

Some people need to fuck around (a lot) less to find out (a lot) more, though.

The most useful attitude is "fuck around and find out" and "no one knows what they’re doing” can get you there.

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Yeah, I agree. The thing is... there are different ways of expressing this idea. Much like how some people see a glass of water as "half full" while others see it as "half empty." Neither perspective is wrong. But I think one of those might be more helpful than the other.

My biggest gripe with "no one knows what they're doing" is how defeatist and pessimistic it comes off. When I looked at the replies to Manson's tweet, I couldn't find *anyone* who sounded inspired. It's a good soundbite. But it rings hollow. It doesn't resonate in a positive, inspiring way.

At least, "fuck around and find out" is actionable. It encourages risk taking with prudence. If "no one knows what they're doing" is supposed to get us to "fuck around and find out" - if that's it's *only* purpose - then we should just start (and go) with "fuck around and find out." Just cut to the chase.

There's something that just doesn't sit right with me about using a "we all suck" mentality as a source of motivation to "fuck around and find out." It reminds me of what Stephen Covey called a "lose-lose" mentality.

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yeah, I agree. It's definitely more of a negative attitude. Perhaps the best scenario to use it is when someone's deep in imposter syndrome.

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I'd say it's "temporary pain relief" at best for addressing imposter syndrome. But it doesn't address its root cause.

The idea works until it doesn't. It works until you realize there are *still* people better than you at your job. That's why I like to call it a "candy quote." It's like a lump of sugar in your mouth. It's sweet and comforting until it's all melted away. And it's bad for you in the long run.

What helped me address imposter syndrome was to take stock of my wins and losses. Be brutally honest about what I'm bad at. But also what I'm good at. That's what I dive into in Dive 63 (https://newsletter.belowthesurface.top/p/dive-63-why-record-your-wins-and-losses).

Acknowledging your accomplishments helps you justify why you're in the position you're in. It balances out the other aspects of you which are still "works in progress". And it builds confidence because it's based on past events that are real and true. See Dive 58 (https://newsletter.belowthesurface.top/p/dive-58-how-to-build-confidence-that-lasts).

I recently learned the term "false humility." It's when we intentionally devalue ourselves to *appear* humble, which makes it pride in disguise. I think imposter syndrome and false humility go hand-in-hand. Because either way, we're just not being honest about what we're *good* at.

People who are truly humble recognize their own gifts. So, they don't see themselves as above *or* below others. That's what I'd like to aim for. More on false humility here (for those interested):

https://leadingwithtrust.com/2019/10/06/4-ways-to-overcome-the-danger-of-false-humility/#:~:text=Humble%20people%20fully%20appreciate%20their,an%20attempt%20to%20appear%20humble.

This is another reason I don't like the idea that "no one knows what they're doing." Because it adds to false humility. So, while it *might* feel comforting to hear in the moment, it probably worsens imposter syndrome in the long run. Because we're not being honest about what we're good at.

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I feel like people don't understand what humble actually means. People use "humble" when they have false humility - look at all the award acceptance speeches when they start off, "I am humbled to win this award."

I agree there's a disconnect where we're not honest about what we're good at. But I also think that we need to be humble because our level of understanding is actually really low. And "no one knows what they're doing" can mean this (agree that a lot of people don't use it for this use case).

Three things to think about:

1) The half life of facts - https://www.amazon.com/Half-Life-Facts-Everything-Know-Expiration/dp/159184651X/

2) Thinking of yourself as an expert creates local maximums - you won't try new techniques if you're convinced in the "tried and true" - https://chr.iswong.com/p/the-origins-of-expertise

3) This was an interesting thread

"Smart people disagree ON societal design. Wise people disagree WITH societal design.

Stupid or thoughtless people don't have bad ideas for what Crow calls "societal design"; they have NO ideas.

The really bad ideas come from smart people. "

https://twitter.com/Devon_Eriksen_/status/1739794075757289840

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Yeah, I totally agree. There are definitely people who are overconfident and arrogant who need to be humbled.

And I also agree that "no one knows what they're doing" *can* imply that we need to be cautious. But, yeah, most people don't use it that way.

Most people who say "no one knows what they're doing" are targeting those who lack confidence. That's why Mark Manson prefaced his tweet with "Take comfort." If the tweet was meant for the arrogant, then it should instil fear, not comfort.

And while "no one knows what they're doing" can be a message of caution, those who get the message are often not those who need it most. Devon Eriksen makes a good point. I like it. But do you think the smartest people in the world would readily take his message to heart?

I don't think so.

I doubt the smartest people would take caution from the idea that "no one knows what they're doing" for the same reason - they think they're so smart that the rules don't apply to them, which is what Devon was getting at. Some call this, "personal exceptionalism."

"No one knows what they're doing" wouldn't humble the smartest people because the smartest people don't think they need to be humbled.

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This is why I've gone 180 on EA (way before the whole SBF thing). I feel "they think they're so smart that the rules don't apply to them." And I don't think they're actually that smart because I find cognitive biases littered throughout their writings.

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